As we reach the halfway point of winter I've found that this season's mean temp and rainfall is remarkably similar to 1985/86 - which was followed by the third coldest February in this area since 1881. However, before any coldies get excited it is also very similar to 1989/90 - which was followed by the Burns' Day Storm and the warmest February on record. Two other similar seasons 1993/94 and 2002/03 were fairly non-descript and had below average 'snow lying' days.

Which leaves the chance of at least one fall of snow at 75%.

Details can be found on my blog: http://wp.me/p2VSmb-ns