Looking back...

Well it's now past T+192 (which I think was yesterday the 16th) and although there is a very strong SE'ly flow affecting the far NE of the British Isles, and an Anticyclone and cold air over Finland, with a strong ridge to southern Norway - there has been NO change in type!

What we need is one of the many lows that intensify to the W of Ireland, to have enough momentum to push across the North Sea and into northern Germany. It may be we need to go through a period of S'lys before we see pressure giving way in the Med and pulling in more of a SE'ly to get out of this cyclonic SW'ly run.

Looking forward...

Like a mug I'm staring at the latest 0600 GFS run - will I ever learn! That indicates that this may happen briefly (low into Germany) at T+300 (29th January), so I'll pick up this thread then and see if it did happen!

Bruce.