On Sunday, January 26, 2014 12:26:13 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Dawlish wrote:

On Sunday, January 26, 2014 10:11:46 AM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:

Keith (Southend)G wrote:



On Sunday, 26 January 2014 00:02:04 UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:

What's that phrase - "Like a dog with a bone"

Now into about week 10 of Exacta Weather's severe cold forecast.

Updated 25th Jan.

"Here Comes The Cold & Snow - But For How Long & When Will The First

Major Snow Come?

After a much cooler and more wintry week throughout this week, next week

is set to turn even colder still, as winds begin to veer in from the

north east/east. This will allow for the development of widespread

wintry showers and severe frosts for many parts of the country

throughout this period.

There is also the ever increasing risk for a number of major and

widespread snow events as we head towards the end of next week, in

particular, in or around Friday. This period could prove to be a

potentially dangerous weather event (that standard met will adjust their

forecasts on during the coming week), which could bring many parts of

the country to a standstill due to heavy snow from the far north to

parts of the far south.

The cold and wintry theme is also set to become the dominant theme up

until the mid-February point at the very least. There may be some more

near normal temperature values at times in the second half of the

February, but this is set to be replaced by another cold and wintry

start to the March and spring period, even a milder pattern does develop

for this period"

Ah, you missed the first line Dave "Once upon a time" :-)

Keith (Southend)

http://www.southendweather.net

"Weather Home & Abroad"

twitter: @LawnscienceEssx

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Having forecast this continually since November the real issue is that



eventually they will be right! Then there will be headlines about them



being the only agency that got it right.



Yes, That's always what happens with these people. No forecast accuracy records are ever presented, just a concentration on the present forecast and a hope that it will be correct. If it is not, they forget it immediately.. If it is correct, they trumpet it and use it to bolster a forecasting record which is actually hopeless and with only a little digging and monitoring, demonstrably hopeless. Piers, *******i, the internet hopecasters and a bunch of other wannabes do exactly the same. The only way to combat this is to monitor the accuracy of their forecasts and newsgroups like this do help in that.



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That's what is so good with Philip Eden's "Not the Long Range

Forecasts". They are really investigations. He is happy to say it might

be very average as well as mild or cold. He does not claim any

brilliance in accuracy and they are there for all to see. December's

turned out to be innacurate, January's quite accurate. When all is said

and done, as a meteorologist, he will be happy to say whether they are

meaningful or not I'm sure.

Agreed, though I think Philip would describe himself as a climatologist first and foremost!