On Thursday, January 30, 2014 8:13:23 AM UTC, exmetman wrote:
Looking back to my 17th Jan posting:



Well its the now the 30th and there was a change in type yesterday! So YES there was a change in type as suggested by the T+300 GFS! But only half a point because the low never made it into Germany! This is probably the first real break in the SW/CSW spell since it started back in early December.



Looking forward...



No change of type out to T+384 (15 Feb). Once we get out of this very short lived CSE its back into the same mix of SW/CSW occasional C. I'll see if the GFS gets it right when I report back in a fortnight.



Bruce.

HI Bruce,

In the early days of constructing my forecasting algorithm, I used to try to forecast at 10 days. I only managed to get a plume right at T+300 once and that was the furthest I dared go! It certainly looks strongly zonal on the gfs, right out as far as 16 days, but I can't trust anything beyond 10 and I con't trust even that most of the time. I'm 80% confident of Atlantic weather at T+240 ATM, but I always leave 3 days in between forecasts to avoid the tag of cashing in on persistence. Most of my forecasts show changes, but not this winter. The only change (to colder) I forecast, I got wrong!!

Interesting what you are doing though; I'll look forward to your updates and thanks for monitoring this.