On Wednesday, February 12, 2014 10:50:22 PM UTC, David Mitchell wrote:
It would simply be guesswork, not bravery, and such 'forecasts' would have little or no value.



Far from it. What do you learn from predicting a near certainty? ............

Yawn. How do you know it is a near certainty? That's where I differ from others. I can tell you when there is an 80% chance that the models can be trusted at 10 days and my percentage accuracy has risen, *because* I've learned and refined my technique. You would have no idea of those times, yet you happily tell me I only forecast when there is a near certainty.

How on earth do you know when the models are pointing to a near certainty that the outcome in 10 days will be as they show on a particular day. Do tell.

This morning, for instance. Try a forecast at 10 days and see if you are accurate. I say there is not an 80% chance of a particular type of weather this morning.