On 13/02/2014 19:06, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, February 13, 2014 5:55:03 PM UTC, N_Cook wrote:
On 13/02/2014 17:17, Togless wrote:

"N_Cook" wrote



Looks like equalling the 1999 marine flooding tomorrow

for the late evening high tides for central southern

England, despite being well below astronomical spring

tide heights



If it comes off as predicted, that would put high water about half a

metre higher than the highest tide I've ever seen in Langstone

Harbour... and that was disturbingly close to the top of the sea wall.



I'm more sure than ever that moving uphill was a good decision.





Generally tides are about 0.2m higher in Portsmouth than Southampton.

Recent record exceptional high tides at Southampton were 5.6m in 1999

and 5.7m in 1989 so perhaps 5.8m and 5.9m in Langstone.



Is the geopotentials

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map....eur&size=large

putting tomorrows LOW on a more southerly track than the METO were

projecting?

If it ended up going up the English Channel it would be more serious

A track of that nature would put the sea wall directly in the firing line again, but neither the 12z gfs, nor the 12z ECM show this. As it stands, the weakened areas of the wall will take another battering. I hope no-one is planning to get into and out of the far SW by train for quite a while. It's a bleak outlook for both the Levels and the coastline. *((


The geopotentials have stopped drifting south, going north again. I'm
not used to depressions that don't just track straight across the UK.
Tomorrow is the last time the locked-in jetstream will be sending
depressions up around the Scandinavian High. No longer locked into the
path east of the rockies past us and on to west of Scandinavia , for the
last 2 months