On 14/02/2014 07:25, Ian Bingham wrote:
The HadCRUT series of world temperatures show that average world
temperature stopped rising around 2000, and if anything has been slowly
falling since. The question is not so much where the heat energy has
gone (it has evidently gone into beefing up the atmospheric circulation,
both horizontal and vertical) as why temperatures stopped rising when
they did. What happened around 2000 to cause that change?

Ian Bingham,
Inchmarlo, Aberdeenshire.

I subscribe the Keeling tides hypothesis although I think they failed in
their paper to identity rather strong tidal forcing components at 54.1y
(3x Saros) and 58y (2x Inex) that happened to pretty much cancel out in
the latter part of the twentieth century leading to much less deep
oceanic mixing and amplifying the effects of atmospheric warming.

http://www.pnas.org/content/94/16/8321.abstract

If this is correct then the cycle will switch back fairly soon.

You can see the previous bump around 1940 on the HADCRUT graph.

If you look at the historic but noisy PDO graph there is a fair amount
of ~60y component in it, but it is very noisy and the individual years
vary a lot (as does the number of eclipses you get in the year and the
geometrical tidal forcing component).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PDO1000yr.svg

In the last hundred years or so it actually looks quite sinusoidal.

I suspect most of the "missing" heat energy has gone into the ocean and
now is driving the faster evaporation, jet stream and wetter winters.


--
Regards,
Martin Brown