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John Hall · February 14th 14, 08:14 PM posted to uk.sci.weather

In article ,
writes:
An unusually precise forecast from Weather Action:

"What will happen to that DEEP LOW 15th (currently similar to 12th
on Forecast maps)?

WeatherAction Answer.
It will NOT be as severe as MO say. The Central pressure 960 mb
at 00z 15th over Eire/Irish sea will be higher, and the centre will
not have advanced so fast. The system will fill somewaht (sic) as it
proceeds from now (13th 11z). The reason? We are now moving
from an R5 into an an R3 period and Standard Met cannot well
forecast out of an R5."

Normally the wording is so fuzzy as to enable claims of accuracy
regardless of the actual outcome, so it will be interesting to see
what the Central (sic) pressure is at midnight.
snip

Well already at noon today (14th) the central pressure seems to have
fallen below 960, judging by the data that the 12Z GFS run was
initialised with as shown in its "00" chart. And the centre already was
only about 100 miles off the SW coast of Ireland. By midnight tonight
it's still forecast to be under 960mb centred in the northern Irish Sea.
So at the moment it looks like the MO forecast on the 13th that Weather
Action were referring to will be spot on.

Anybody know what, if anything, R3 and R5 mean?
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"