As you all probably know the direct warming effect of doubling CO2 from preindustrial times can be calculated at 1.2 C. This is well known, there is plenty of data on line on this and there is not argument about it, it is basic physics.

So, that's increasing CO2 from 280 ppm to 560 ppm, we expect to get 1.2 C. We are currently at 400.

So where, you might ask, do the figures of 4C, or 3C come from? Well they are due to positive feedbacks.

What happened was this, when the fed the 1.2C per 100% into the climate models in the late 90s they couldn't recreate the previous 30 years unless they added a big positive feedback which multiplied that 1.2 C up to 4 C.

The feedback they chose was simplistic. Water Vapour. A powerful GH gas and with a simplistic mechanism chosen, the 'as it gets warmer, more water evaporates' they had their mechanism.


Of course the system is far more complex than this, WV is an excellent heat transport to the upper atmosphere, but this can be verified by checking just what WV has done over the last 30 years or so.

For that we can go to NASA: http://clivebest.com/blog/wp-content...3/NVAP_pwv.jpg

Ah. WV has actually fallen. Hm, now that means WV is a negative feedback, and actually reduces that 1.2 to something like 1 C.

We can actually also verify this with experimental data because have already added 46% more CO2 to the atmosphere! So what did we get for this 46%? We got 0.7 C.

Now of course the effect of CO2 is inverse log, the more you add, the less effect you get, so for almost half the CO2 increase we have had over half the temperature increase. So even if we attribute ALL that 0.7 C to CO2, and no one does that, we are bang on line to get to 1C for 100%.


What does all this mean? Well the goal of limiting temperature rise to 2 C is attainable without limiting CO2 production.

A temperature rise of 2C has been chosen because it is the limit at which supposed climate change becomes dangerous. In limiting it to 1C climate change is not dangerous, all we have is a slight rise in temperature. A rise less than that which we have already seen since the depths of the little ice age. And we have not even got to 1C yet!


So, not only are these storms NOT due to climate change, at 0.7 C climate cant have changed that much, unless the IPCC is completely wrong, and future warming is also not a problem.

These storms are just normal. The kind of thing we get every 50 or 100 years. The kind of thing that created the flood plains in the first place that we see flooded today.