On Monday, February 24, 2014 12:36:35 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, February 23, 2014 10:15:59 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

On Saturday, February 22, 2014 7:59:59 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:



I spend a couple of days in London (where the weather was actually gorgeous and Waterloo sunset on Friday was simply magnificent) to see something we haven't seen on a weather chart for months.........the Azores High pushing NE towards us. Cool, as we'd be on that NE limb, but some lovely sunny days, if it achieves outcome.















I would *love* this to be still on the charts tomorrow evening and it not be just a short-lived calm period after the colder plunge which is likely to follow the coming week's wet and windy weather. Could this possibly herald the end of the zonal train?? MetO says "No!" in the 6-15 day forecast. See how the models develop; the Meto has done very well in its 10-day thoughts, throughout the winter; perhaps this time they may not be as accurate.







Still there after next weekend on both the gfs and ECM, but in my view, everything ATM post T+240 suggests it won't last and zonal will re-establish itself...........



Tantalising, isn't it, but I would favour a re-establishment of the zonal conditions, after a short, but very pleasant spell of fine and dry weather in the south early next week.

And amazingly the 12z ECM actually erases any possibility of high pressure building towards the UK for the next 10 days. Quite incredible and I was absolutely correct not to forecast this. The method worked again and the possibilities shown in the models 3 days ago, at the start of next week, are now likely (and unfortunately) to be no more than smoke and mirrors..........unless you set store only by the gfs!