On Monday, March 10, 2014 8:03:58 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
**Retrogression of the current high, westwards into the Atlantic, will introduce a flow between west and north at T+240. As well as becoming increasingly unsettled from the NW, this flow will see cooler than average temperatures (for start of the last third of the month) for most areas of the UK, by the 20th. Frosts will be widespread if skies clear and snow over the hills may be followed by wintry showers over lower ground behind any disturbances in that flow**



A very different forecast from my last two, but there is agreement and consistency in the models, hence I have 80%+ confidence in the forecast.

10 days ago, the models were suggesting this change a day before it is actually now likely to fully happen! Not a bad forecast, but not spot on.