In message , Martin Rowley
writes

"Redshift" wrote in message
.. .
Do I read the GFS correctly? Is there is risk of heavy snow across the
centre of England on Friday night on the north edge of the little
depression swinging SE across the country?

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/60_30.gif

... interesting one isn't it! A lot can go wrong with these small-scale
features - it looks as if the cold low-level air will flood down from
the north, but it will all be finely balanced as regards the
positioning/intensity of that small-scale low; certainly 'one to watch'!
Martin, What interests me is the shift from yesterdays GFS and UKMO
products to today's. In the good days (and they were) the T=48
southerly jet forecast over Newfoundland, (UKMO) would certainly
introduce a cold northerly over UK. (George's Theorem). Agreement
between models is fairly good at midday, but continuity from yesterday
is poor.
Fascinating stuff, but when you have to issue every night caution is
essential in these circumstances.
The small feature forecast to cross UK was first handled by the GFS on
1200 prog Monday, ignored last night now back again. Basically we don't
know. But the potential for some snow is there - exactly where again we
don't know yet.
Still - some interest.
Regards
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS