Thanks Paul. If you need any help with the next four days or any other
time, I'm sure we could have some good discussions.

Cheers, Keith

Paul Bartlett schrieb:

In message , Keith Darlington
writes
Disclaimer: The forecaster is not responsible for damages or losses
incurred by the forecast-user. The forecast-user is responsible for
his own actions at all times.
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A single chart which indicates the expected average pressure
distribution over the thirty or so days is the basis of this monthly
forecasts. This 1/30 chart cannot point out short-period variations in
the weather, but it does illustrate the general trend of how the month
will be in the long term. In some cases, the single 1/30 chart is
valid for the beginning of the month and a new chart comes into force
for the second half of the month. In that case, the 1/30 charts
demonstrate a weather development which takes place over the month.

To give you some idea of the practicability of these charts I'll
describe the January 2005 weather.

Since the 1st of January, we've had low pressure to the W and NW of the
British Isles. High pressure has been generally placed to the S and SE
of the country. However, in the last few days the high pressure has
moved to the SW and S of the country and low pressure has moved to the N
and NE of the uk.

The 1/30 January forecast chart shows a low pressure area to the W and
NW of Britain covering Scotland, North England and Northern Ireland.
High pressure covers Biscay and France. This means that the country
could expect generally mild SW winds with rainy conditions in the west
and north-west of the country - and drier conditions in the extreme
south-east. But January has a second forecast chart which becomes
valid after mid January. The second chart shows high pressure
coming into the south of Ireland and the south-west of England. Low
pressure crosses the top of Scotland and moves to south
Scandinavia. The high pressure then strengthens over the British Isles

A glance at the GFS charts for the rest of January seems to confirm
the forecast, but with the addition that the high pressure to the
south-west will drift eastwards across the country followed by low
pressure coming into the north-west. at the end of the month. You will
notice that only the large scale trends are discussed here and the
short term variations in the pressure situation have not been included.

-----------------------

For those who wish to go further, the February forecast shows an
anticyclone covering the southern North Sea area and low pressure
covering the north-west of the country. There is generally a S to SW
airstream over the uk. This fine weather doesn't last long because
the development shows that the low pressure advances quickly across the
country before mid month, pushing the anticyclone eastwards into the
continent. Winds soon turn westerly with much rain.

March will be pretty much the same as early January. Low pressure
over NW and W Britain. Much rain in the west and north-west. Finest
weather in the south and south-east of England.
Winds generally mild south-west.

April has its normal showery weather because the general trend is for
cool north-west winds to cover the country. It will be a cool month
with the best weather in the south-west

May will start off showery and cool with the best weather in the
south-west, but the second half of May will have depressions into the
NW and W of the country bringing rainy weather to the western half of
the uk. Winds will be north-west at first turning to to generally
south-west and west winds later.

June will have depressions crossing the north of the country with
frequent rain showers in a generally westerly wind. Then, by mid
month, high pressure will cover eastern districts from a 'high' over
the continent. Low pressure will be confined to the western half of
the country. Winds will generally be from the south in western
districts.

July looks to be generally a fine month. High pressure covers the
country with depressions crossing well to the north of Scotland. There
may be some hot and thundery disturbances coming up from Spain into
France which may influence the extreme SE of England at times. Towards
the end of the month the light and variable winds turn westerly as low
pressure starts to invade the NW of Scotland.

August suffers a mixture of weather. Low pressure near the Channel
and low pressure to the north-west of Scotland means a lot of hot
thundery conditions for south and south-east England. There is high
presssure over the near continent and hot S or SE winds flow into the
country as the high pressure becomes more pronounced. Towards the
middle of the month, low pressure to the NW of Scotland will retire to
the south of Iceland and anticylones will move into the south and
south-east of England and the North Sea. Here, the worst weather is over
W Scotland and Northern Ireland. Dry sunny weather is reserved for the
S and SE of England. Towards the end of the month, high pressure comes
into south-western districts from the Atlantic and low pressure crosses
over to the North Sea. Cooler NW winds flow down the country.

September weather starts with strong depressions to the N and NW of
the country. Winds are generally W or SW and there is much unsettled
weather about. High pressure along the Channel coast slowly builds up
into the south of England and beyond, so that the low pressure to
the NW of the country is pushed back into the Atlantic. Towards the end
of the month, high pressure generally drifts away towards the North
Sea, and the Atlantic depressions progress eastwards towards Northern
Ireland and W Scotland.

October has generally cool showery weather coming from the northern
Atlantic. Isolated disturbances drift across the country. About the
middle of the month, high pressure drifts across SE England and low
pressure moves to the S of Iceland so that SW winds cover the north of
Britain. And this type of weather lasts till the end of the month.

November has a lot of anticyclonic weather over the country. The axis
of the anticyclone is difficult to position. Sometimes the axis lies
from SW England up to SE Scotland, other times the axis lies N/S just
to the west of Ireland. In both cases, the cold side of the
anticyclone lies over central and eastern Britain, so some cold spells
can be expected out of the north and the near continent. There are
times when the cold air reaches western districts and when that
happens, small disturbances can build up near S Ireland and SW England.

December starts with high pressure over the near Atlantic. Cool NW
winds flow down the country. and an area of low pressure is generally
situated near SW England. Towards the middle of the month, a large
anticyclone develops over the country drawing in NE winds over the SE of
the uk.. Disturbances over France may be driven into SE England causing
some snowfalls. At the end of the month, the high pressure is
squashed to the SE of the country as low pressure starts to infringe
into the NW of Britain. So as far as the 1/30 charts go, December has a
good chance of produciing some good December snow, especially when
the temperature over the continent is well down.

I think you will find that the forecast gives a good, but very rough
overview of the monthly weather throughout the year. If the forecast
didn't have any merit, I wouldn't take the trouble to post it.
Keith, strewth mate that is brave. I am having horrendous difficulties
with the next four days - good luck.
Cheers
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS