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Old June 3rd 14, 08:09 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
exmetman[_2_] exmetman[_2_] is offline
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Default UK summer flash floods to become more frequent...

You've all probably read about the research done between the UKMO and Newcastle University that points to an increase in flash flooding in the UK. This is a bit that I have clipped from the Guardian article:

Elizabeth Kendon of the Met Office, the lead author of the study, said that the
research was groundbreaking in using a high-resolution weather forecasting model to translate the likely effects of climate change into a detailed prediction of future UK summer weather.

"Until now, we haven't been able to do it in this way," she said. "This should help people to understand what is likely to happen in the summer in future. It's very important that we've detected this signal for heavier downpours in the UK. It's now for policymakers to decide what to do about it."

Some of the worst results could still be a few decades away, but the effects are already being felt and are likely to grow more severe, according to the models. But Kendon said more accurate predictions would depend on more scientific research being undertaken.

Summer rainfall is different to that typical of winter, when long-lasting steady bouts of heavy rain are common. These can cause their own flooding problems, as seen early this year when heavy rain caused widespread devastation in the UK with thousands of people forced to flee their homes.

Climate models suggest heavier winter rainfall for the UK. Summer downpours, such as those seen in 2012 when heavy rainfall followed a long period of drought, with disastrous results, are harder to predict but can take a greater toll as they are more sudden, and crops are ruined and tourism disrupted.

Kendon said: "It's the hourly rainfall rates that you look at in summer." The rain tends to fall in shorter but more intense bursts, caused by convective storms, but this has been difficult for climate models to simulate, because they lack the ability to home in on such brief events. It took the Met Office supercomputer, one of the most powerful in the world, nine months to run the necessary simulations.

(courtesy of the Guardian)

If these events are on the increase in the summer months as their research concludes, isn't it a shame that the Met Office and Environment Agency don't release 'real time' hourly rainfall data from the hundreds of automatic gauges in their network for the rest of us to see and not just for some University research?

I'm sure it is not beyond the realms of science fiction that someone else could then use that information to create a mobile app that could alert the public about any flash flooding event that is occurring now?

http://www.theguardian.com/environme...e-change-study