On Saturday, July 5, 2014 5:36:53 PM UTC+1, Keith (Southend)G wrote:

Ah that was this morning :-)



Seesawing everyday between two scenarios.


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I have to disagree, sorry. ECMWF hasn't had another run since this morning And it has been broadly consistent during the past few days for the first half of the coming week.

Certainly from midweek onwards, though, there has been inconsistency from run to run and across models regarding how quickly the Azores High will ridge ENE'wards. That's been plaguing my medium-range forecasts since the start of the week and beyond - but the troughing across the UK for the start of next week has been pretty well signalled by the ensembles for that long, so that's always had reasonable confidence.

Just how much rain manifests in any one particular spot, though, is another matter, of course.

Stephen.