On Friday, 22 August 2014 23:38:55 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Friday, 22 August 2014 12:12:20 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:



Whatever, regardless of that odd fact, I had said that Karina would increase in amplitude around now~ish. What is happening is that in keeping with some unrecognisable law, a following storm sucks the life blood out of the first one and becomes a very powerful one in its place.



Actually I was looking at the Hawaiian site watching the forecast, not the analysis.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/models/mo...&imgsize=Large

So perhaps I was being a little previous with the above. Nice forecast though, Karina having rebuilt since I posted the above earlier today and Marie spinning up from a TS to Cat 2 in a day with a Cat 4 on the cards:

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/:



Meanwhile:

Landslides in Hiroshima, Japan have claimed lives of at least 39 people and left 51 others missing on Thursday, Japan Today reported quoting the disaster management office in Tokyo.



Heavy rainfall caused landslides in Hiroshima. Hiroshima was hit by torrential rain in the early hours of Wednesday with more than 100 mm of rain per hour recorded, Xinhua reported.

http://www.disaster-report.com/2014/...s-in.html#more

Always a sign of impending volcanics:



Ubinas (Peru): After a being relatively since the end of July, a powerful explosion occurred suddenly at the volcano on 22 August 2014, at 15:36 local time. Ejecta fell over 2 km with an approximately 7-8 km. ash plume.

Explaining the paucity of tornadoes on hehttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/140818_rpts.html



So here is the definitive signal for a VEI number eruption:

1. Three tropical storms

2. Floods and landslides

3. I am guessing this one: Three anticyclones at sea level crossing the same parallel over North America.

And finally the clincher:

4. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View



A pair of cyclones the complete opposite to the type of development for a large earthquake. In the above case it is a stream of precipitate falling in a line, tangential to the coast of Antarctica.



In this case it is taking water from the middle of the Indian Ocean to the middle of the Pacific. It never gets there of course touching Antarctica as it does at 180 degree (Ross Ice Shelf.) On a Mercator chart the other end of the straight edge gets to the top centre of the picture above. No idea what it looks like in the round.



I am sure the charts for the previous runs will have shown this was clearly the separation of several cyclones one of which taking off on the outside edge of the second of three. A small tertiary running along the coast. It seems to have been joined by a few friends to date.



It will be interesting to see if it bounces off. If it does so and keeps its distance from Antarctica until it reaches South America, the result is a severe tornado episode. Maybe even a line storm/ something as expressive in the same line of work as an extra tropical going ashore over Europe maybe. (Or I am going to pretend I never said that.)



What I should do now is post the same on my blog complete with pretty pictures.

https://weathercharts.wordpress.com/...05&action=edit

So now you know it was cold for a reason. (Someone tell me they saw mare's tails to make up for your lack of diligence.)