Dave Cornwell wrote:

Bogdan Iqbal wrote:
Good morning friends. Take a look at Kasim Awan's thoughts on this winter.
It holds a lot of promise for snowfall I am sure you will agree.

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uk-winter-2014-15/
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Good morning. I found this a most interesting read. I have no confidence in
anybody's long term winter forecast at this stage, be they amateur or
professional but this one has at least a well detailed and thoughtful
approach making it interesting to read and does not suffer from the
outlandish predictions of pseudo professional forecasts like those of Exacta
Weather. In fact it has a very sensible qualifier:-

"It’s Too far off. It’s simply too far out to be “Realistic” When it comes to
UKWeather. The atmosphere here is Extremely Dynamic. We can Try and Use
Analogue Year’s, Sea Surface Temperatures, Solar Activity, QBO, and the
Seasonal Models to Try and conduct a Forecast. But Ultimately the
Unpredictability of the Physics Surrounding our Atmosphere which Drvie the
Weather is at an Early Stage, this Comes to Play more in Short Term Weather
Forecasting, although does Apply Considerably for Long Range Forecasting" Dave

P.S Is CFS the same as GFS or a typo?


It's the Climate Forecast System operated by NCEP in the USA which, amongst
other things, produces 12-hourly forecast charts out to 9 months ahead (I kid
you not!) updated daily. Their current offering for midday on Christmas Day is
a 960mb low centred NW of Scotland with strong SW'lies (probably Returning
Polar Maritime air) over the whole of the British Isles - to be treated with
the utmost caution and cynicism :-)

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org