No-one can predict the coming UK winter with any track record
of accuracy and your friend is, effectively - and he does, in
essence admit this - guessing.

Many, many thank yous for your sincere replies though I detect
a slight cynicism in Mr Malcolm and Mr Dawlish's reaction. May
I reassure you that Mr Kasim puts many hours into his work.

I am sure he does, but however many hours he puts in and
however sincere in his beliefs, I will retain my cynicism
about anyone's long range forecasts.
Malcolm

Perhaps scepticism would be a more accurate term than cynicism?

Anne