On Monday, October 6, 2014 9:33:49 AM UTC+1, Bogdan Iqbal wrote:

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uk-winter-2014-15/ Why? No-one can predict the coming UK winter with any track record of accuracy and your friend is, effectively - and he does, in essence admit this - guessing.



Many, many thank-yous for your sincere replies though I detect a slight cynicism in Mr Malcolm and Mr Dawlish's reaction. May I reassure you that Mr Kasim puts many hours into his work.

Ignore those two boners. If they are not one and the same idiot they are closely related (to seals or dogs. Not sure but they seem a couple of hard dicks of that sort. Of course I don't get close enough to examine what might be turds. So....)

You fail to make allowances for seismic disturbances; in which case you are making the same mistakes that were made in the 19th Century by some quite good lunarists.

You attempt to do what Piers Corbyn does, as he too leaves out teleconnections of the other geo-phenomena. Until you can incorporate the seismic effects along with other teleconnections, you will fare no better than he.

What you might do and it seems you ARE doing, is to explain your working models, something Piers refused to do. I doubt the MetO is still interested these days though, since they have been underwhelmed by climatologists.

Here is some insight you might care to make use of:
http://www.forgottenbooks.com/books/... r_1000855280

He was spot-on except he couldn't allow for the eruption of Krakatau. How could he?

It was more than the "one in a century" storm he had predicted.