On Thursday, 23 October 2014 22:04:07 UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, October 23, 2014 9:30:30 PM UTC+1, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
On Thursday, 23 October 2014 20:15:42 UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
The model change in 2 days has been quite amazing.

**Forecast: on Sunday, 2nd November, the UK's weather will be dominated by low pressure" Wet and probably windy in many areas.

I have to agree that is some turnaround around the 29th 30th where a short live low press NW air stream looked consistent from both the main models so just goes to show how reality plays games with models, mind you its not reality yet its a model playing games with a model until verified.

Yes. That's why it is called a **forecast**

Geddit?

No not at all its just reporting on the model output. Now if you were to look at the models and then say they may chop and change but it is going to be this or that despite their flip flopping , well now that is a forecast. By what you are saying we can all be general forecasters and of course we can if we go by the model output which is rarely wrong five days out. However even ta five days out certainty of whether type i.e. high pressure or low and positioning and time of the year the expert forecaster then puts detail on that forecast . I know and you know that at the moment Hallowens now looks like high pressure will dominate most of the B Isles with a slack southerly air stream which will be very mild but can there still be rain near the outer edges or fog I don't know-do you?