On 29/10/2014 14:58, Len Wood wrote:


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Such a powerful computer we are told is needed to give hourly forecasts at
1.5 km resolution on an operational basis.

But we already have these postcode forecasts on an hourly basis 24 hrs ahead.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/w...ime=1414540800

Someone has been telling a porky pie.

13 times faster does not necessarily mean better accuracy.
Someone must have done a cherry picked forecast experiment at the said resolution to show the money is justified.

Or,am I just becoming an old cynic?

Len
Wembury


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The model being referred to is the global model. This is the basis on
which other models will run, which for the hourly forecasts are run with
a smaller grid length and shorter time-steps as well as being for
smaller areas (e.g. UK). See
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research...er-forecasting
for more information.
So no porky pies I'm afraid. The improvements will be from the reduced
grid-lengths, more layers and better science, and less parametrization.