On Wednesday, November 12, 2014 5:39:02 PM UTC, wrote:


Very good but one *crucial* upstream difference he did not mention on
comparing the SST charts was that off Alaska this year it is warm, whereas
in 2009 it was cold. The warmth over Alaska will encourage a deeper cold
pool over eastern Canada and hence a strong jet. Personally I would go for a
stormy December with intermittent normal cold but no real cold developing
until we get well into January when the weak AO will start to manifest
with more blocking.

==========

That's certainly the *kind* of forecast we've issued as well.

The video smacks of someone seeking out evidence for 2009/10 levels of cold and finding the facts that fit (of which there are certainly a few) but ignoring those that do not - rather than drawing a conclusion from the evidence. The Gulf of Alaska SSTs (and PDO state) are indeed a very significant case in point. And the cold pool in the Atlantic is in a different position - this time around SSTs are notably higher in the vicinity of Newfoundland.

Stephen.