November 16th 14, 07:21 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Nov 2010
Posts: 4,488
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**Forecast: Low pressure dominating at T+240
Dave Cornwell wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, November 10, 2014 6:36:08 PM UTC, Col wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Sunday, November 9, 2014 8:33:03 AM UTC, Col wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Monday 17th Nov. **Not especially warm, not especially cold,
but wet
and potentially windy for many areas. Atlantic weather.**
Winter not starting early, fortunately.
I wonder if this forecast could be in trouble.....
--
Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Always best to wait until outcome to judge. *))
But of course 
I'm not judging, merely commenting on how the models are looking
with respect to your forecast.
I'm wrong almost 20% of the time and there has certainly been a
shift to a more blocked regime on the models this evening.
Latest runs don't show quite the same easterly push as before,
but it's certainly not 'Atlantic weather'.
--
Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
I know - very true!
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One of the few when the models have not worked out to be right. I know
you've suggested I do it but I'm too lazy :-) - but for statistical sake
I would love you to try and make a forecast (or guess, which it would be
with no agreement, say 6 times a year, to see if it is worse or better
than the ones with the model consistency. Be interesting to see exactly
how far from 20% it would be. My guess is 50% as it is random - but then
of course the next question is how does one assess accuracy?
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Sorry - from 80% accuracy I mean.
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