On Sunday, November 16, 2014 7:20:04 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, November 10, 2014 6:36:08 PM UTC, Col wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Sunday, November 9, 2014 8:33:03 AM UTC, Col wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Monday 17th Nov. **Not especially warm, not especially cold, but wet
and potentially windy for many areas. Atlantic weather.**

Winter not starting early, fortunately.
I wonder if this forecast could be in trouble.....
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Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Always best to wait until outcome to judge. *))
But of course
I'm not judging, merely commenting on how the models are looking
with respect to your forecast.

I'm wrong almost 20% of the time and there has certainly been a shift to a
more blocked regime on the models this evening.
Latest runs don't show quite the same easterly push as before,
but it's certainly not 'Atlantic weather'.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

I know - very true!
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One of the few when the models have not worked out to be right. I know
you've suggested I do it but I'm too lazy :-) - but for statistical sake
I would love you to try and make a forecast (or guess, which it would be
with no agreement, say 6 times a year, to see if it is worse or better
than the ones with the model consistency. Be interesting to see exactly
how far from 20% it would be. My guess is 50% as it is random - but then
of course the next question is how does one assess accuracy?

My guess would be around 50% too. I feel that there are only particular times when forecasting accurately is possible. If someone wants to verify that, be my guest. My work has certainly shown that when particular parameters are met, forecasting at 10 days can be usefully accurate.