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Old December 10th 14, 01:53 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Scott W Scott W is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Nov 2005
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Default Colin Finch's 38F minus rule

After being reminded about this a couple of weeks ago I decided to have a look at the stats back to 1806 and see what the results are.

If there is a run of cold days (3.3C or less) around mid-month the chance of an average to colder than average January and February is 94% and 74% respectively. The chance of an average to colder than average March is 96%. Also notable is that the chance of a severe spell in January (4C colder than normal) is 30%.

The full blog post can be found here. http://wp.me/p2VSmb-wO