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Old December 10th 14, 05:09 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
John Hall[_2_] John Hall[_2_] is offline
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Default Colin Finch's 38F minus rule

In message ,
Scott W writes
After being reminded about this a couple of weeks ago I decided to have
a look at the stats back to 1806 and see what the results are.

If there is a run of cold days (3.3C or less) around mid-month the
chance of an average to colder than average January and February is 94%
and 74% respectively. The chance of an average to colder than average
March is 96%. Also notable is that the chance of a severe spell in
January (4C colder than normal) is 30%.

The full blog post can be found here. http://wp.me/p2VSmb-wO


Those are remarkably high percentages. The biggest surprise is that it
should be such a strong pointer for as far ahead as March, and - oddly -
stronger than for February.
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