Scott. I am not sure how you have arrived at those figures. Using the values
on the link you gave, and taking my own average monthly mean temp for the
periods 1882 to 1990 as an approximation, I find that for the years you
list, the Dec cold spells were followed by:
Normal (anom +1 to -1) Jan 38%, Feb 24%, Mar 34%
Cold (anom colder than -1) 48%, Feb 34%, Mar 32%
Mild (anom warmer than +1) 14%, Feb 42%, Mar 34%
So the 38 minus rule in Dec was followed by an average or warmer Jan in 52%,
Feb in 66% and Mar in 68%. I can see no useful peredictave value in that.

--
Bernard Burton

Wokingham Berkshire.

Weather data and satellite images at:
http://www.woksat.info/wwp.html

"Scott W" wrote in message
...
After being reminded about this a couple of weeks ago I decided to have a
look at the stats back to 1806 and see what the results are.

If there is a run of cold days (3.3C or less) around mid-month the chance of
an average to colder than average January and February is 94% and 74%
respectively. The chance of an average to colder than average March is 96%.
Also notable is that the chance of a severe spell in January (4C colder than
normal) is 30%.

The full blog post can be found here. http://wp.me/p2VSmb-wO



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