UK WINTERS.
In article ,
Graham writes:
I remember winters in the early 1970's that were mild and also deadly
boring and predictable. However I don't remember anything quite so
mild. Maybe Philip can compare these and come up with an objective
answer.
The high currently west of UK is not strictly a 'Bartlett' high as the
dynamics were different.
I think they were as mild and boring Paul but that run was only from
1971 to 1976, not as long as this run which is 1998 to ??????? Who
knows!
I have a few stats just to compa
snip
I've just put these stats into a spreadsheet, omitting 2004-5 because
the winter isn't complete yet.
Mean temps
Period Dec Jan Feb Winter Days S/F Days S/L
1970-1 to 1975-6 4.8 3.9 3.6 4.1 12.2 6.0
1997-8 to 2003-4 3.7 3.7 4.5 4.0 14.3 8.4
So the temperatures for January and for winter as a whole show almost no
change, though Decembers have got colder and Februaries milder. There
have been slight increases both in days with snow falling and in days
when snow has been lying.
Note Graham's caveat that the data for the earlier period were taken at
a lower altitude, which may account for a few tenths of a degree or a
couple of snow days. Once 2004-5 is included, the mean winter
temperature for the more recent period may go up by a couple of tenths
of a degree, depending on how February turns out. Unless February is
cold, this winter could turn out to be the mildest since 1997-8 or even
1974-5.
Even so, going by the above data there seem to be no grounds for saying
that the current run of mild winters is unprecedented, unless it's in
its length. However I don't think that a run of 8 mild winters (and
counting) is significantly different from a run of 6. But if the current
run extends for another three or four years then it may be necessary to
think again.
I'm tempted to repeat the same exercise using CETs, and also to extend
it to include the notable runs of mild winters in the 1920s and 1930s.
--
John Hall "Do you have cornflakes in America?"
"Well, actually, they're American."
"So what brings you to Britain then if you have cornflakes already?"
Bill Bryson: "Notes from a Small Island"
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