"Adrian D. Shaw" wrote in message
...
Felly sgrifennodd Jon O'Rourke :
My very basic understanding is that much of our electricity is
generated via
gas and a large percentage of this is now imported. Thus, I find the
conclusion above more than a little difficult to believe.

At a guess, it's the futures market. They thought they were going to
need a
lot, so they bought more on the futures market at the higher price of
last
Autumn.

I am assuming here that gas has decreased a little since, along with
oil.


.... the main (weather-related) driver of crude oil prices seems to be
anticipated conditions in the populous NE US, not here in Europe/UK. One
of my 'hobbies' is watching the pundits on Bloomberg TV trying to
predict the prices - they always seem to *follow* the event in my view,
but there was a definite upward trend late last autumn in prices
(reflected in Brent) following the damage caused by hurricanes in the
Gulf of Mexico, coupled to a seasonal forecast from US sources that the
NE states would experience significantly below average temperatures over
the winter: there were doubts also about oil stocks in the US, which
further pushed prices up - there are dollar/Euro/sterling issues as
well. The subject is highly complex - I certainly don't understand all
of it, but I suspect the pessimism was North American based. Utilities
this side of the pond have to do the best they can in the 'global'
market.

Martin.