Felly sgrifennodd Karatepe :
The temperature ranges from 1.9C to 11.4C, that's a massive difference,
how can a model with that much uncertainty be scientifically useful?

Firstly, because it shows an increase (whatever the amount). This is useful
information.

Secondly, because any scientific prediction is based on probabilities.
Virtually no prediction is certain. Scientists are used to working with
probabilities. Knowing probabilities is very useful to a scientist.

Go and study some statistics if you don't think this is useful. Pay
particular attention to the section on normal distributions, model error
and probabilities.

Whilst you're at it, see if you can educate certain politicians as well!

As an analogy: suppose a frost is forecast tonight, with a 70% probability.
This means there is a 30% chance there won't be a frost. So, you would argue
that this is useless information? Is it useless for the council gritters
to grit the roads, then?

Adrian

--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk