On 12/01/2015 10:04, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Sunday, January 11, 2015 at 9:13:15 PM UTC, N_Cook wrote:
On 11/01/2015 13:22, Graham Easterling wrote:
.. . is now looking very interesting indeed.

The forecast for Sennen at noon shows the surf height of 24' - 39' with a primary swell of 38' combined with a mean wind speed of 55mph (Storm F10)

Even in Penzance, relatively sheltered from the W-SW, F8 with gusts to 70mph are currently predicted.

Certainly one to watch, certainly be interesting to see what John Chappell records at Land's End.

Graham
Penzance


Lucky the tidal regime is well in the neaps that day

Still looks generally as windy, particularly just ahead of the cold front in the south. However forecasts have changed in that the associated depression is now forecast to pass further north.

It is the rather more persistent westerly gales associated with this feature that was forecast to produce the large powerful swells. AS a result the latest forecast shows the swell considerably smaller for Cornwall & SW Ireland. Instead of Sennen at noon forecast to have primary swell height 38', it's now come down to a not uncommon winter height of 23'. That's not too dissimilar to the current swell height.

It's certainly still wild enough down here, http://magicseaweed.com/Live-Sennen-Webcam/65/ You wouldn't want to venture out in that unless you had to, east of the Lizard it's different world at the moment.

Interesting stuff, still last year at this time, after the Jan 6th gale, the beach had done a runner. The difference then was the low was deeper, slow moving & further south http://www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/J...14%20Swell.pdf That was the biggest swell of last winter. The February ones weren't quite as big, but came from a more damaging direction into populated south coast areas sheltered under more normal condition.

Graham
Penzance


There is little fetch where we are, Southampton, so wave action is never
a problem, just sea-level surges.
My researches on historic surge events for the Solent area, goes against
a lot of academic , supposed research, including a few PhD thesis' reports