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Old January 27th 05, 02:31 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Alan Gardiner Alan Gardiner is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Jul 2003
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Default Any advance on 11C?


"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message
oups.com...
Firstly, because it shows an increase (whatever the amount). This is

useful
information.

Secondly, because any scientific prediction is based on probabilities.

Virtually no prediction is certain. Scientists are used to working with
probabilities. Knowing probabilities is very useful to a scientist.

Do they know the probablity distribution of the huge range of
temperatures quoted? If so, why not tell us? I have not seen any
quoted probabilities, or a time scale, and without these the figures
are quite meaningless.

Tudor Hughes

At the end of the news last night the timescale quoted was the end of this
century. Not surprisingly nothing was said about probabilities.

Alan