The forecasts I heard stressed the drizzle or LIGHT rain expected. Only
'nuisance value' was mentioned which is not too easy to interpret though I
took it to be small amounts!



6 miles to East of Bury St. Edmunds I recorded 7.5mm 24hrs to 0900 Z and
note that Brooms Barn Research Station (Bury St. Edmunds) reports 9.5mm same
period. This would be their most rain for 09 to 09 24hr period since 8
November.
It's disappointing that the forecasts (other than Basel?) miss a
significant event after such a long dry spell although of course the hind
casts well document the reasons for it .

NickS, Woolpit. Suffolk.


"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...
Those in the south of Britain who woke to steady (and notable) rainfall
this morning might have been surprised to look at the Exeter analysis

http://www.weather.org.uk/charts/UKCpf000.png

and find no fronts in association with this rain .... however, inspecting
the upper air charts, particularly:-

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_00_UTC/06_1.gif

shows the culprit: a broad 'pool' of cold air aloft (slightly 'bluer'
colours on this output) and if you follow it through the sequence, the
feature actually intensifies. This indicates potential for
instability-based vertical motion and if the atmosphere is moist enough
(which it obviously is), then thick cloud and rain can result. These
things can result in surprisingly significant icing for aircraft
operations, which are not what the surface/mslp pattern might indicate.

Surface charts don't always show the whole story, particularly with
blocked anticyclonic features.

Martin.


--
FAQ & Glossary for uk.sci.weather at:-
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/uswfaqfr.htm