David Mitchell wrote:

Norman, we're in yellow and you're not, though I would anticipate the
opposite in reality. We don't get much snow this side from a Westerly
direction, but I guess subtle wind changes can impact on you, as per the
previous weekend.

DM. Langtoft. ER of Y.

I agree with you, David. What is critical here is whether or not the gradient
wind direction has anything north of due west in it. In this case the
prediction is that it will be at least WNW, if not NW. I feel sure, therefore
that if there is significant snowfall it will come further south than the
warning area indicates.

Again we currently have the conflicting situation where we are outside of the
warning area yet the current Peak District forecast for Thursday states:

"A very wintry day, even at low levels. A strong and bitterly cold wind
will bring frequent and at times heavy snow showers with significant
accumulations likely. The showers may well begin to ease off late in the day
as the strong winds turn northerly and abate a little. Freezing level around
200m."

If we get the snow the forecast is right and the warning is wrong. If we don't
get the snow the warning is right and the forecast is wrong. Not easy for the
average punter to make an informed decision. My bet is that the forecast will
be right, because of the predicted wind direction, and that the southern limit
of the warning area will prove to be too far north.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org