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On Thursday, February 5, 2015 at 8:20:54 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
I think Keith's 'European update' may give the real clue as to why this
airflow is not terribly cold.

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Yes I think that's the main factor. Sea temperatures are higher these days
and the Baltic freezes less. But we don't seem to see the Continent in the
freezer too often these days and that must affect the temperature of the air
reaching the East coast on a North Easterly surely. I'm confident if Europe
gets another cold winter Essex will! Unless you are in the minority at
altitude I doubt anywhere has had a truly cold spell yet this winter.
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It's not been that cold on Dartmoor, just normal cold. Yes there has been a
deep snow cover on the high moor for about 9 days now, but that is not
unusual for mid-winter. The MetO forecast for Cut Hill (603m asl) is for
temperatures in the range -3C to +1C for at least the next 5 days with
occasional snow grains. That is not especially cold for that location but of
course when you compare that to the expected 6 or 7C at Exeter, it is. If we
had had a truly cold spell high Dartmoor would be in the range -8C to -3C as
day maxes. I suspect that in the 1960s those sort of temperatures were
relatively common. I suspect the same goes for Europe, it is only at
altitude that there is "proper" cold. The USA seems different but they do
not have the "benefit" of a gulf stream, which lends weight to the fact that
higher SSTs will give us *on average* milder winters even in colder snaps.
Global warming may mean that we may get more extremes like 2010 or March
2013, but on the whole winters are milder and low-level snow is rarer, so
far. Nobody knows how the synoptics will pan out in a future warmer climate.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
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