On Tuesday, February 24, 2015 at 9:34:32 AM UTC, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
On Monday, 23 February 2015 12:11:41 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, February 23, 2015 at 9:45:31 AM UTC, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
Well you have to hand it to the man , he has excellet in his forecasts of cold snowy mid west to east coast winters. In a period where everyone was expecting AGW to produce winters like seen in the film White Christmas (yes I know its fictional) where it was mild with no snow covering in the east ski state of Vermont. Joe seems to have nailedit the last two winter especially

http://www.shorenewstoday.com/snt/ne...ther-week.html

Again, because you learn nothing, I'll show you the same analysis of *******i's forecasts I showed you before. This was an *actual* analysis of *******i's record. It shows that his forecasts, over a 4-year period were simply hopeless and it completely debunks your hero. Real analysis of these people always does.

Anyone forecasting cold winters is *certain to get it right sometimes. *******i, piers, me the Internet coldies, all of them. *Certain* to get it right sometimes.

However, it's only idiots like you who believe they have any accuracy over time


**Now read this and learn.**



"This should make anyone think twice before praising Joe's LRFs in the future.

I researched his USA forecasts for 4 years, looked at the actual outcomes, using the NOAA data and then compared the two in a commentary. His 4 forecasts were next to useless. It's a long read, but I'd love to hear comments about this man's LRF prowess following this analysis. If you don't believe me: look at the forecasts and the outcomes yourself. If anyone lionises Joe's LRF ability after this, they are a bigger charlatan than he is.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?repor...d=Get+R eport

Joe *******i USA Forecasting record. 2005/6-2008/9

2005/6. Forecast for the Eastern USA.

A teeth-chattering, cold and snowy winter is predicted for the Eastern U.S. starting in December. And more snow and cold are on tap for the start of 2006, forecasters say.
AccuWeather meteorologist Joe *******i said the winter forecast calls for colder than normal temperatures and above normal snowfall for the eastern Great Lakes regions.
*******i bases his prediction on, among other factors, an active hurricane season. Based on the 2005 hurricane season, and other similar "hyper-hurricane" seasons in 1933, 1969 and 1995, *******i concluded that the winters that followed each of those seasons were typically cold and snowy in the Northeast.


Actual Outcome (NOAA)

December-February temperatures were much above average for the nation, with most states, especially those in the central U.S., averaging warmer than the long-term mean.
However, Accuweather, on its site, chose to concentrate on the last 2 weeks of the winter, when reporting to its clients;

Spin from Accuweather.

Beginning February, 4, 2005, Joe *******i consistently predicted a dramatic change to colder weather for the Midwest and Northeast, to begin about February 18. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service predicted normal temperatures for that period. The price of April natural gas bottomed out at $5..987 on February 18, but then the weather turned colder as Joe had predicted. By March 9 the price had risen to $6.880 due to increased demand. Joe's clients had two weeks of advance warning of this opportunity.

Commentary.

The winter was the opposite of what *******i had predicted. It was a warm winter. The Accuweather spin is very typical of what these people do to gain business.

2006/7

Forecast:

*******i sums up his expectations for the upcoming December-to-February period this way: "The eastern U.S. will experience a colder-than-normal winter overall. The area from the eastern and central Great Lakes to the south-central and south-western U.S. will experience near-normal winter temperatures. The region that stretches from the western Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest will likely see above-normal temperatures."

Actual Outcome (NOAA):

Winter:
December-February temperatures were near much above average for the nation ranking 5th warmest on record. A record warm January dominated the winter average. For information on temperature records during the season, please go to NCDC's Extremes page.

Commentary.

The winter was the opposite of the cold winter that *******i had predicted. The USA winter was warmer than average.

2007/8

Forecast:
JOE *******I'S ACCUWEATHER.COM WINTER FORECAST
The extended winter forecast for the months of November through March calls for a cooler than normal start and end but the traditional winter months, December through February, may be one of the top 10 warmest winters ever for the south-eastern United States. The heat will be centered over the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. For the nation as a whole, this winter will be warmer than last winter; especially in the second half of January and February when last winter season was at its coldest. When looking at the past three winters, we find that population weighted, this may be as warm as the 1998-99 winter and the 2001-02 winters. Unlike the winter of 2005-06 and last winter, where significant shots of cold and snow showed up in major areas during 35-50% of the winter months, this winter may have over 75% of the days above normal in most of the nation southeast of line from the Great Lakes to the Southwest. The only signal for below normal is over the Pacific Northwest.

Outcome:

November
14th warmest November on record (1895-2006).
Fourth warmest November for the Northeast region.
Four states (Connecticut, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Rhode Island) were record warmest during November.
January
49th warmest January on record (1895-2007).
Two states (Delaware and Maryland) were tied for 11th warmest January on record. Nine states were cooler than average, including Colorado and Texas.
March
For the contiguous United States, March 2007 was the second warmest such month on record (based on preliminary data), 5.6°F (3.1°C) warmer than the 20th century mean of 42.5°F (5.8°C). Only March 1910 was warmer in the 113-year national record.
Commentary:

Completely the opposite of what *******i predicted. The warmth was at the start and end of the winter and the cold was in the middle!

2008/9

Forecast.

Last week, AccuWeather's Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe *******i issued his 2008-2009 winter outlook. The outlook calls for an "overall colder and snowier" winter compared to the last "several" winters for the East Coast.. About the winter *******i says:
"It may be a shock to some when compared with the above-average temperatures of last year in the East. It will put some 'brrrrrr' in the saddle of folks who have not had to deal with such things for a while."
Keep reading for more on *******i's outlook. For the weather through the week, see our full forecast.
*******i expects winter to assert itself in two blasts -- at the beginning and at the end -- with a pronounced January thaw in the middle.

Outcome.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for December was 32.5°F (0.3°C), which was 0.9°F (0.5°C) below the 20th century mean and ranked as the 35th coolest December on record, based on preliminary data.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for January was 30.5°F (-0.8°C), which was 0.3°F (0.2°C) below the 20th century mean and ranked as the 49th coolest January on record, based on preliminary data.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for February was 34.9°F (1.6°C), which was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th century mean and ranked as the 52nd warmest February on record, based on preliminary data.

Commentary:
Although the winter overall had very slightly below average temperatures, as Joe had forecast, the pattern was slightly colder at the start, no mild January and above average at the end. Nothing like what he'd forecast.

4 years, 4 poor forecasts for the USA. And he has the gall to criticise the Met Office's forecasts for the UK.

*))

2009/10. USA cold overall (correct), the NW and the NE to be coldest with the central areas being closer to average. (totally incorrect, the NW and the NE both had above average temperatures, whereas the central areas were well below average. NE was warmer than average in both Jan and Feb, colder in Dec)

Reasons - an El Nino peaking in Nov/Dec (didn't happen - the pak occurred Jan/Feb) and a change to a colder phase of the PDO. (The PDO was just above av in December, wellpositive in January and ........... in Feb."

As I said, just hopeless and not even as good as chance.

Why don't you take this up with the organisation tha heaps praise on Joe in that linked article.

I didn't come here to bury St Edmunds, No it was cards, I came to raise him.

Organisation? Please don't make nme laugh any harder, my sides will surely split. Or you could simply open your denier eyes and stop believing this idiocy, which has no provenance and look at actual monitoring of his forecasts.