On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 05:56:28 -0700 (PDT)
Alastair wrote:

On Wednesday, March 11, 2015 at 12:44:58 PM UTC, Alastair wrote:
On Wednesday, March 11, 2015 at 9:12:30 AM UTC, JohnD wrote:
Looks like it will take a major reversal of the present downward
trend for the 2015 maximum now to get back close even to the -2SD
envelope. Still possible of course and 2-3 weeks to go to be
sure, but looking unlikely. Nothing more than a curiosity for now
(and no suggestions otherwise).

A record low maximum is hardly a mere curiosity. See:
http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f...75b5ce0970b-pi

At the Royal Society meeting last November it was reported that the
September Arctic sea ice minimum was related to the extent of the
melt ponds in Spring. Therefore the albedo early in the year
controls the ice extent in the autumn. This is a positive feedback
process with low albedo early in the season causing even lower
albedo later.

We could well see a catastrophic melt this summer.

Here is another chart which shows how dire the situation is:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ch...sea-ice-graph/

It has never been this low and recovered. Let's hope I am wrong.

One thing I see about this season is that there is little ice along the
Greenland coast. This hints at there having been less outflow of old ice
from the Arctic this winter. This could mean that this summer may not be
a record one.

I suspect that there will be a rapid reduction at first. Although there
doesn't seem to be an excess of ice anywhere, the area that is nearest
to normal is the eastern seaboard of N America and this, being at low
latitude, should go early. Once that's cleared, reduction rate will
probably slow down a lot as getting rid of the Arctic ice may be slow
going.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
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