The El Nino is strengthening and predictions are for it to strengthen further and last through 2015, but it is clearly not yet as strong as El Ninos in 2005 and in 1998. However, I would now expect 2015 to be the second year in succession with record warmer than average temperatures. Without GW, this would be a very unlikely scenario, given the strength of the current El Nino (and there wasn't one last year, of course).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf