On Saturday, June 27, 2015 at 8:38:45 AM UTC+1, Bruce Messer wrote:
Why do you persist with this 'forecasting' pretense?

You are looking at NWP output and you stumble on a potential hot, cold, wet or stormy spell and you flag it up - great leave it at that.

I've done it - we've all done it at some time trying to be the first one to post about it in the group, but drop the 'forecasting' malarkey, as far as I can see you are making a selection of what you see as the most realistic of the available models which is not forecasting.

But your forecasting would be very limited indeed if it wasn't for model output - remember William Foggitt he never would be doing with all the new fangled ideas!

"as far as I can see" is exactly right. It's an opinion. It's the interpretation of the output which makes a forecast, Bruce. Anyone could look at the output at 10 days and say what it shows, but judging the likelihood of whether it will achieve outcome is a *very* different matter. If you can't see that, try forecasting at 10 days from NWP output a few times and see how accurate you are. It will teach you lots about what I do.