On Wednesday, August 19, 2015 at 9:22:51 AM UTC+1, JohnD wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...

Your problem with that is exactly where?

I can't really speak for Col, but I suspect that he's more sympathetic to
your forecasting attempts than you might think, as indeed I am. But rather
than trying to answer his question by misplaced obfuscation or bluster,
wouldn't it have been simpler and more honest just to say:

'All my forecasts can really do is to try to predict the broad pressure
pattern across NW Europe. Sometimes this allows some specifics of the UK
weather type to be forecast, but at other times, as now, there is too much
uncertainty in the detail to permit much more than the broad pressure
preview.'

Col just got the wrong end of the stick! The clue to this forecast is in the title: ** Forecast: Scandinavian high on 25 Aug** *))

I have no idea how many times I've said something similar to your summary, John. It's what the models show at 10 days, when I determine there is sufficient agreement and consistency and the detail is always going to be difficult, though I usually try to add some.