"Alex" wrote in message
...

The sad fact is (and I know because I was involved in some market research
on what the public want from forecasts - with the Met Office) that you/we
are in the minority in terms of what we want from a forecast. Joe public
has an attention span of about 15 seconds at the start of the forecast with
a 'second wind' of about 10 seconds after triggering by a keyword (like
their area/town or mention of a parameter of interest).

A rather cynical assessement though perhaps not too far from the truth.

The priority of the forecast is by definition the forecast and not a
reflection of previous forecasts. To start a forecast with a comment on the
fact that the previous forecast was 'out' would undoubtedly cast doubt on
the quality of the subsequent forecast and is not in the interest of the
weather provider (bearing in mind that I am talking about the public here
and not about verification to business customers, academia or other
meteorological bodies). Unlike some businesses or weather literate
individuals the changes between forecast runs is of no interest to the
public with less than 5% able to even remember what the previous days
forecast was (except in extreme conditions or events of interest - e.g. snow
when this rises to a more comforting 50%). Amazingly 50% of people when
questioned on the content of a forecast immediately after its broadcast
where unable to correctly recount the forecast for their area.
Interestingly much of this was due to the fact that when presented with a
map of the UK 60% of people where unable to point to their location within
50km!

Admittedly this research dates back a decade but I doubt if things change
that much.

The bottom line of all this is that the majority of the public don't give a
damn about yesterdays forecast and for most of the time don't listen to the
forecast. Therefore to mention it would be wasting valuable broadcast time.
Trying to provide a forecast in a 1 to 3 minute slot is an impossible task
and at best is only going to get your message across to half the viewers.


Yes but saying something like, 'Yesterday we thought this front was going to
move into Scotland, but now it looks like it's going to get no further north
than
Northern England and then move south and weaken.' will hardly take up a
great deal of time. Plus, it will help the public understand that meteorology
isn't an exact science and sometimes forecasts go pear shaped.

There must have been many people in Scotland today wondering where
their wet and miserable day had got to.

It always amazes me that in a country that is supossedly obsessed with the
weather the general public know so little about it.
In the US things are very different with jet streams being routinely mentioned
in forecasts.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk