On Tuesday, September 22, 2015 at 7:46:09 PM UTC+1, wrote:
On Tuesday, September 22, 2015 at 9:31:15 AM UTC+1, wrote:
b No that is too close to sea level down here. More like 250 metres. Last
winter was classed as mild but even so there were many days on Dartmoor with
snow lying above 500 metres. A colder flow will bring that snowline down,
perhaps closer to sea level up north.


Might be interesting up here in such a scenario. Lying snow in a straight westerly showery airstream (as opposed to a NW)isn't all that common here but it does happen, especially in late winter when the sea is obviously colder.

We will see if this pattern of a colder Atlantic persists, it's been around for a while now I think, late spring/early summer?

Col

It's been around most of the year, but changed gradually, especially over the last 4 months. It is now considerably further south. Back in June it was around 10 degrees further north, rather more intense, but didn't extend anywhere near as far eastward. In fact at the end of June SSTs were above normal in the eastern Atlantic everywhere from Ireland to northern Spain. It extended eastward in August.

From a purely observational point of view, based on past events, I expect it to drift further south & become less of a feature. The forecast change in pressure patterns is lightly to aid this (or is it vica versa - these chickens & eggs are real problems).

The chance of me being wrong is quite significant!

Graham
Penzance