"Paul Bartlett" wrote in message
...
Hi. When some private companies sought cheap publicity again by
forecasting an 'Arctic' winter most of us poured a good deal of scorn on
them. And probably quite rightly so too. That was in the Autumn of 2004
though.
I wrote this winter off as mild in February 2004 and said so in this
group.
The Office though are not so easy to dismiss until their Forecast for this
month. Published in this group on 31 January 2005 it forecast cold and
snow.
Immediately the models I use (GFS,UKMO,ECMWF) began to become more zonal,
a process which has continued to today. I immediately (on 01 February)
said that serious cold was an unlikely scenario, and promptly got a minor
and (I hope) good natured telling off by Will.
I am not aware of the Office specifying their methodology, so I am not
sure why they made such a wild mistake. I admit my methods are crude and
simplistic but at least I state them. (Basically similarites and cycles).
Not brilliant but at least made clear to people when I used to issue
winter forecasts.
Of course this month is not over yet, and the Office may yet be nearly
correct.
Yours with a degree of sorrow.
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather

Paul I think your sig sums it up really : 'Wisest are they that know they do
not know.' Socrates


What will be will be, and I'm am on the precipice of towel throwing! However
I hold back because despite this undoubtebly globally warmed world, the
synoptics will probably deliver again something to savour in years to come,
just as they have done for Greece, Spain, Algeria etc. etc.




Regards


Seann Blowman