On Friday, 6 November 2015 14:18:43 UTC, Ron Button wrote:
On 05/11/2015 23:12, Scott W wrote:
On Thursday, 5 November 2015 16:33:26 UTC, Ron Button wrote:
Following this months record breaking November maximum it reminded me of
the previous record back in 1938 and how similar this months synop
situation is, i.e persistent European High and an active Atlantic.
Perhaps more important is how the situation dramatically changed in mId
December to a blasting easterly finally giving the classic Christmas
snowstorm of the 20thy century.
I wonder whats the chance of an encore then ?, (or the first Christmas
forecast of this season)

RonB

There was a deep NW'ly cold plunge that November, 22-24, that brought 15cm of snow to southern Scotland. As with a lot of November snow events it didn't make it down here, just briefly turning it cooler.
The stats for Greenwich:
22nd 47.6 39.3 .013in
23rd 57.1 41.3 .015in
24th 46.9 36.4 -

It will be interesting if we get a similar brief cool plunge this month.

Could be Scott

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...=0&archiveRonB

RonB


How much air is collect in the pressure systems preceding the elongations, in other words how much acreage do the cols involved start off with?
Gauge all those correctly and you can do sensible forecasts. At least it woks in the pressure systems I use. No idea what upper air values will be.