On Thursday, 5 November 2015 16:33:26 UTC, Ron Button wrote:
Following this months record breaking November maximum it reminded me of
the previous record back in 1938 and how similar this months synop
situation is, i.e persistent European High and an active Atlantic.
Perhaps more important is how the situation dramatically changed in mId
December to a blasting easterly finally giving the classic Christmas
snowstorm of the 20thy century.
I wonder whats the chance of an encore then ?, (or the first Christmas
forecast of this season)

I stumbled upon the CFS (no laughing now) NAO forecast for several months ahead. Not that I'd ever take this at face value, I did find interesting the fact that it has, for the last 3-4 months, consistently gone for a negative NAO setting in in January and lasting through Feb and March - or variations on a theme of late winter negative NAO.

It's consistency in the model that interests me - it could be that this is just the model tending to a basic state as it runs freely. Or it could be that this is a manifestation of the El Nino and - as I've read elsewhere, the tendency for the 2nd half of winter to be colder (in Europe) when one is prevalent. Or it could just be all a load of tosh. But it still piqued my interest.

That said, I'd love to see a proper roaring westerly winter like 1989/90.

Richard