On Sat, 05 Feb 2005 11:34:11 +0000, "Keith (Southend)"
wrote:

I think someone mentioned a few weeks ago, it would have been
interesting to see what the models would have predicted if we had them
back in 1946/47 and 1962/63 ?

I would have thought it could be back-tested, using the data then
available. I would be surprised if the model developers haven't
already attempted this but if the data is too sparse or has been lost,
the results may not have been too meaningful. My guess is that the
models would have gone for a series of short cold spells, with
forecast thaws that consistently failed to materialise.

I'm sure that one year in the not to distant future we will have our
turn, global warming or no global warming and that will be a shock to
many in this country.

Yes, and it will probably be of sudden onset, after the models (having
by then been tweaked to stop them forecasting cold spells all the
time) consistently predicted mild conditions at 3 to 10 days range.
Seriously.

--
Dave