In message , Will Hand
writes
Hi Paul, is was indeed meant to be a "good natured" rebuff. I just found it
ironic that the first time for years the Met Office went for a very cold spell
that up would pop your good self and say it was a load of rubbish -
effectively.
Your reasoning as far as I can see is that recent Februaries in this
pathetically mild modern era have been mild so why not this one ? Fair enough.
But the Office bases its forecasts on a combination of model ensembles, SSTs,
patterns etc. and for them to go cold it had to be something special.
As you say
the models changed on the 1st Feb *after* issue (sometime before 31st when the
decision was made) , so using *hindsight* you were able to criticise.

Thanks for referring to my explanation as to why northern blocking is less
frequent nowadays (in your earlier post). We see an example now typical of this
modern era with the customary deep lows in the Norwegian Sea well to the north
and our old friend Mr Azores (I hate that guy :-)) high well entrenched further
north than normal.

I laugh now when people talk about how cold it is outside when the temperature
is 2 deg C, (one day the temperature was 7 deg C and someone remarked
how bitter
it was !!!) strewth you and I have experienced many winter days when the
temperature did not rise above 0 deg C.

As for companies like Metcheque and TWO, all I can say is that they are
publicity seekers and nothing else. In time their clients will see that and go
elsewhere unless they change their ways.

Finally, I thank my lucky stars that I now live on high ground, at
least up here
I have some hope of some half-decent winter weather (at the expense of summer
sun and heat of course !). There are some places on lower ground in the
southwest who have hardly had a frost yet let alone any snow !

Ah well I have my pictures from Xmas Day to cheer me up in these grim times.

Best wishes Paul, and keep up the good work,
Will.
Thank you for defining the hard work that goes into the Official
forecasts. They were at the time backed up by GFS - I wonder if they are
taking a bit of criticism also. Now of course they show a a forecast of
possibly record breaking high temperatures as a high develops over the
Alps.
I hope people reading this thread will now realise what a nightmare it
is to prepare a 'long term' forecast. Even if you put in hours of
research and work.
Kind regards
Will keep in touch.
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather