On Wednesday, December 16, 2015 at 6:39:04 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
On 16/12/2015 17:55, David Mitchell wrote:
Thinking about the GFS in particular, as it goes out for a longer period, has anyone measured its accuracy recently.

It just seems to me that it's been a lot less volatile in its predictions, when compared to previous years, with little in the way of eye candy at 300+ for example.

So is this a reflection of improvements in the modelling, or a reflection of the synoptic situation?

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It could be both I suppose but I have monitored a couple of the longer
term charts and they have been very accurate at 10 days although of
course as you say, things have been pretty stable in terms of patterns.
In fact I'm surprised a certain person hasn't issued a *forecast* during
the last six weeks.
Dave

I nearly referred to those forecasts when posting. Ironically, "if" they were a regular daily feature, with less obsession about 80% accuracy, they would be extremely useful in monitoring not just models, but patterns as well, as I've said before.