On Sun, 27 Dec 2015 14:41:18 +0000, "Keith (Southend)"
wrote:

On 27/12/2015 14:14, Dave Ludlow wrote:
On Sat, 26 Dec 2015 11:32:49 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

On Friday, December 25, 2015 at 1:45:16 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, December 24, 2015 at 9:41:39 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Zonal to the edge of reality on all models this evening.

And a change back to interesting today. Interesting isn't it?

Fascinating really. Nothing at all sorted at 10 days and it's been the same uncertainty for days. Still a chance of something more wintry. Still a chance of progressive and continuing mild.

You pays your money and you takes your chance. Anyone got any more confident than me?

There is currently for the first time broad agreement between the 3
ten day+ models on a cold outbreak from the east next week, though the
main High is set far away in northern Russia. Whether or not the real
cold actually makes it across the North Sea and Channel seems to be an
open question though... but they all predict that it may do.

It will be interesting to see at least a short break in the incessant
south westerlies, if it comes off.


With such warm ground temperatures of late it would take som e drop of
temperature for snow to settle.

It doesn't take long, Keith. In Dec 2014 max/min temps in Tideswell were

16th 9.2/1.6
17th 10.6/3.8
18th 11.1/9.2
19th 5.6/3.9
20th 6.0/2.9
21st 10.5/4.8
22nd 11.4/5.8
23rd 10.1/8.3
24th 5.4/3.3
25th 4.7/3.7
26th 2.8/0.2
27th 0.8/-2.2

Yet, at 0900z on the 27th there were 27cm of lying snow. The temperature didn't
fall below zero till about 0515z on the 27th. The snow didn't last long. Milder
air swept in at the end of the month and by New Year's Day the snow had mostly
gone.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org