On Friday, January 1, 2016 at 12:06:10 PM UTC, Freddie wrote:
Dawlish Wrote in message:
On Friday, January 1, 2016 at 11:38:01 AM UTC, Freddie wrote:
Dawlish Wrote in message:
On Thursday, December 31, 2015 at 8:51:32 PM UTC, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Thursday, December 31, 2015 at 3:36:18 AM UTC-5, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, December 29, 2015 at 7:11:18 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, December 29, 2015 at 5:27:34 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, December 29, 2015 at 10:27:32 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, December 28, 2015 at 9:04:42 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 9:35:12 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 3:22:36 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 2:14:00 PM UTC, Dave Ludlow wrote:
On Sat, 26 Dec 2015 11:32:49 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

On Friday, December 25, 2015 at 1:45:16 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, December 24, 2015 at 9:41:39 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Zonal to the edge of reality on all models this evening.

And a change back to interesting today. Interesting isn't it?

Fascinating really. Nothing at all sorted at 10 days and it's been the same uncertainty for days. Still a chance of something more wintry. Still a chance of progressive and continuing mild.

You pays your money and you takes your chance. Anyone got any more confident than me?

There is currently for the first time broad agreement between the 3
ten day+ models on a cold outbreak from the east next week, though the
main High is set far away in northern Russia. Whether or not the real
cold actually makes it across the North Sea and Channel seems to be an
open question though... but they all predict that it may do.

It will be interesting to see at least a short break in the incessant
south westerlies, if it comes off.

--
Dave
Fareham

Good to stick your neck out Dave! Although the models are showing what you say ATM, there's just not been consistency enough for me to forecast. This evening's output may tip the balance.

Models appear to be keeping the cold at bay tonight.

And the possible cold is even more at bay today......

This is a fascinating model situation and has added interest to model-watching, but it must be soooooo frustrating for the coldies on the weather forums.

ECM is progressive and pushes the cold away. GEM gives more than a glimmer of hope to the coldies and gfs is pretty undecided!

A tiny bit more than very slightly interesting developments, but I started this thread on Dec 22, a week ago and little has clarified re-the UK, more than winds from a generally southerly direction: potentially wet at times and fairly mild.

12z gfs keeps things vaguely interesting, but with no real change in the UK's weather. A full week on from when this situation first showed itself and the model outcome remains exactly the same for the UK!

Is the balance tipping away from this model cold reaching the UK with the GEM and ECM?

Very little chance of this model-proposed cold from the east advancing towards the UK now. I'll perhaps be sure enough to say with 80% certainty this evening. I'm afraid the few who proposed the cold's advancement to the UK in early January are very likely to be mistaken. The difficult part of forecasting with any kind of high level of accuracy at 10 days, is knowing when not to forecast. Most of the time, you'll be guessing and will be wrong. I'm still not certain enough, this morning, to present an opposite forecast to cold at 10 days - there's not quite the consistency I'd like to see and hints are still there - but I may well be confident enough this evening.

NB However, a SSW appears to be in the process of forming, so cold *may* head our way later in January. (Noting that the relationship between the development of SSWs and the establishment of cold from the east, in the UK, is not in any way a certain one).

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...rent_merra.pdf

=======

Why, in the context of SSWs, are you linking to the 10hPa temperature at *50 deg N*?

Mainly because it's the easiest proxy to understand for a rise in stratospheric temps. Do link, if you wish to show this differently.


But why at 50 north? Why not further north where the warmings
originate?
--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


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Decent. Could do. I chose 50N, as it is our lat.


Okay. But the further north you choose to watch, then the better
signal you get.
--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


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True. On the NASA site, the number of files are huge.

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s.../annual/merra/

50N was the first graph I came to. Probably not the best, as you say. Nothing terribly interesting on the SSW front at present.